WNKY News 40 WEATHER REPORTS: Farmers’ Almanac Releases Winter Outlook
How Accurate Are They?
For hundreds of years, The Farmers’ Almanac , not to be confused with the Old Farmers’ Almanac, has released seasonal forecasts for the U.S. and Canada . Some may be skeptical about its accuracy and reliability. We dive deep into it!
Historically, farmers have trusted the Farmer’s Almanac because they’ve been around the longest. Joe Duncan is a local farmer in south central Kentucky, who doesn’t keep track of the Almanac’s predictions. Thanks to modern meteorological advancements, local Farmers get in depth forecasts with the help of the Kentucky Mesonet.
“With the Kentucky Mesonet system, they can get soil temperatures, 24 to 72 hour forecast that are pretty accurate, telling how much rain we might get when it will come.” Duncan Said.
This winter, The Farmer’s Almanac is calling for a “wet winter whirlwind”. In our zone, it highlights Cold Wet & White. Their website claims that their predictions are based on a formula developed in 1818.
Farmers’ Almanac 2024-25 Winter Outlook
This year, the pattern seems to favor a typical La Nina set-up, when cooler waters are over the equatorial pacific. The Jet stream carries systems from the pacific northwest and through the Great Lakes region.
Although their website states that longtime followers believe their forecasts to be 80% to 85% accurate, The Farmers’ Almanacs’ handling on the last few winter seasons have been roughly 50% accurate.
When making comparisons between the Farmers’ Almanac’s winter season predictions and actual observed weather, there are vastly noticeable differences. The last winter season, they were forecasting a lot of snow. Notice we only got a little over two inches of snowfall. They were forecasting below normal temperatures. But it turns out that the last Winter season was the second warmest on record In Bowling Green. Will the Farmers’ Almanac nail the winter forecast this year? We’ll see.
Farmers’ Almanac’s Predictions Compared To Actual Seasonal Weather In Bowling Green within the last few years.
The Farmers’ Almanac is available online at www.farmersalmanac.com.
