Record $1 trillion holiday season expected in US, consumers may be spending more for less

(CNN) – Black Friday is a little over one week away.

The National Retail Federation forecasts the first $1 trillion holiday season ahead, but consumers may not get a bang for all of those bucks.

Popular holiday gifts, like toys, apparel and electronics, are among the most imported and most impacted by the Trump administration’s tariffs.

David Bieri, a Virginia Tech associate professor economics, says, “The uncomfortable reality of it all is that the sort of things that we want this Christmas or in past Christmases is stuff that is no longer produced in the United States.”

Russell Holly, director of shopping content for CNET, says some tech and toy manufacturers have made changes to trip their costs.

Holly says, “There have been a number of manufacturers that have made it clear that they’re going to, in order to adjust to tariffs, do things like remove batteries, so the batteries would need to be a separate purchase. The packaging may be different.”

Purchasing items brought in before tariffs took effect may help consumers save money, but Holly says to do some research, especially with tech, to make sure it’s worth it.

Bieri says online shoppers who find big deals need to note where the item ships from.

“If you’re doing direct imports or have FedEx or DHL or UPS or, or even the U.S. Postal Service act as your importer, you will have to carry the cost.”

The De minimis rule had long kept low-value packages entering the U.S. tariff-free.

However, the exemption ended in August.